Having sketched a rough overview of all eight Troop Leading Procedures (TLPs), we now focus our attention on the third and most in-depth of these: making a tentative plan. As noted previously, this plan is considered tentative because new information; such as gained from reconnaissance, rehearsals, informants, etc.; may necessitate a change to this plan. It should also be reiterated that the TLPs in toto, including making a tentative plan and the Operation Order (OPORD) format, could be applied with minimal modification to planning and preparing for virtually any activity, whether a military action, a camping trip, a formal ball or a tourist excursion.
As presented here, the process of making a tentative plan has six steps,[1] the first two of which involve analyzing (1) the mission at hand and (2) various major facets of the situation. The different variables of this two-step analysis can more easily be remembered with the acronym METT-TC (Mission, Enemy, Terrain and Weather, Troops, Time, Civilians). The last four steps of making a tentative plan involve developing courses of action (COAs), then analyzing as well as comparing them, and ultimately deciding on the best among them, or in other words, the one most likely to accomplish the mission.
1- Mission Analysis (M)
Identify specified and implied tasks: The mission or action(s) to be performed already include certain rather specific or “specified tasks” to be accomplished, but there may also be other implied tasks which are necessary to achieve in order to accomplish the clearly specified task(s).
Examples of specified tasks for our purposes here include:
-Reaching a safe place
-Getting help
Implied tasks for such a mission might be:
-Navigate
-Maintain security
-Breach/cross obstacles
-Resupply food and water
-Establish a patrol base
Once both specified and implied tasks have been identified, it is necessary to determine which among these are “mission essential tasks,” that is, which tasks are so pivotal that the overall mission cannot be accomplished without them. These mission essential tasks should be included in the mission statement as well as the maneuver portion of the execution paragraph of the OPORD, discussed in another article.
Restated Mission: The Warning Order (WARNO) should have already included a tentative mission statement, but after more deliberate analysis, this statement may need to be modified. The mission statement is a single, clear and concise sentence that includes the who, what, when, where and why of the action(s) to be accomplished. The “what” comprises the just determined mission essential tasks, whereas the “why” elucidates the purpose for doing so. An example of a mission statement could be: “We (the entire group) will travel undetected to and request assistance at the police station at 18 Baker Street before sunset at 19:15 in order to elude hostile elements and any harm they might intend before dark falls.”
2- Situation Analysis (ETT-TC)
Analyzing the situation includes taking into consideration the Enemy, Terrain and Weather, Troops and Time available, as well as the impact of third-party Civilians on the mission. It is hoped that the reader can sense just some of the significance of the name of this website here (Ten-Chi-Jin, “Heaven-Earth-Humankind”). We now consider in turn each of these considerations.
Enemy: How many adversaries are there? What are their objectives? What are their motivations? How committed are they? What weapons might they have? What is their level of mobility, such as physical fitness or whether they have vehicles?
What is their current or last known disposition? That is, are they stationary or moving? Are they actively seeking to engage with you, or will they only do so if they happen to encounter you?
What are their recent or significant past activities? These may indicate future actions.
What is their MLCOA (Most Likely Course of Action)? Also consider their MDCOA (Most Dangerous Course of Action), even if unlikely.
Terrain and Weather: The analysis of terrain and weather will be the topic of an entirely separate article. Thus, we restrict ourselves here to enumerating the major considerations. When analyzing terrain, the acronym OCOKA (Observation, Cover and Concealment, Obstacles, Key Terrain, Avenues of Approach) serves as a helpful reminder of the main points. As for weather, the five most important aspects are visibility, winds, precipitation, cloud cover, and temperature and humidity.
Troops: What members of your group are taking part in this activity, all of them or just select individuals or teams? What is their level of training? Physical fitness? Current state of morale? Degree of restedness? Emotional constitution and resolve? Maturity level?
Time: What time constraints exist, such as regarding sunset or sunrise due to illumination concerns, the closing times of potential sanctuaries (like a shopping mall) or any injuries requiring timely medical evacuation?
Civilians: Could third-party individuals or groups be a help or a hindrance to the accomplishment of your mission?
3- Develop COAs
Identify the different options or possible COAs available for accomplishing the mission.
4- Analyze COAs (Wargame)
Play out each potential COA vis-à-vis the enemy’s most likely COA.
5- Compare COAs
Compare each COA, weighing the pros and cons, costs and benefits, including in light of the insights gained from wargaming.
6- Decide
Choose the best COA, that is, the one most likely to accomplish the mission.
[1] In Army doctrine, the steps of making a tentative plan are called an “Estimate of the Situation,” and this is comprised of five steps. Here, we have divided the second step of “Analyze the Situation and Develop COAs” into two, for a total of six steps.